AI Is Coming for My Business Brokerage. But Not How You Think.

I attended George Wellmer‘s (Tupelo) session at the IBBA conference a couple of weeks ago and watched a packed room of dealmakers leave with their jaws dropped. I couldn’t help but wonder what this industry will look like in the next decade. Most of the crowd did, too.

On one side of the AI disruption debate, the CEO of Anthropic, Dario Amodei, indicated in Axios that AI could wipe out “50% of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to 10 to 20% in the next 1 to 5 years.” This warning contrasts with a more optimistic view from The Economist, which recently highlighted that white-collar employment is still on the rise. The truth likely lies somewhere between these two narratives.

And for dealmakers? The threat isn’t lights-out tomorrow. It is a progressive disruption, one that will reshape how we source deals, conduct valuations, and execute deals over the next several years. Here’s what I believe is coming and when:

Short Term (1 to 2 Years): Augmentation of the Broker, Not Replacement

AI will make good brokers better and faster by automating the grunt work. We are here NOW:

1. Writing teasers, CIMs, and outreach emails in less time, with greater quality control
2. Running comparable analysis and valuation models using integrated data
3. Screening buyers through predictive analytics embedded in CRMs and deal platforms
4. Creating ad campaigns and content in minutes, with precision targeting
5. Sourcing and qualifying seller leads at scale
6. Vetting inbound leads faster with AI-assisted profiling
7. Reaching out with hyper-personalized emails, calls, and automated sequences

My brethren who use AI tools will outpace those who don’t. They’ll be faster, more scalable, and more precise. The question isn’t if we use AI. It’s how well we use it. The paper pushers are screwed, and they should be. They don’t add value anyway.

Mid Term (3 to 5 Years): Commoditization of Low-Value Brokerage

Brokers who rely on access and matchmaking alone are toast. DIY and broker augmentation platforms will continue to pop up, competing for the underserved or underinformed (until some sort of consolidation event). Fueled by AI, platforms supporting or replacing brokers will increasingly be able to:

1. Auto-value a business based on the merits of the business and the capital source appetite.
2. Pre-screen and underwrite buyers using behavioral and financial models to assess their suitability. Axial and Tupelo are already playing with this.
3. Run due diligence. I wouldn’t be surprised if preliminary AI-generated due diligence and quality of earnings reports soon accompany the go-to-market strategy on LMM and Main Street deals. AI is already being layered onto VDRs for due diligence on Wall Street deals. I learned that at the Faegre Drinker M&A Conference earlier this month.
4. Auto-generate and manage transaction documents. We are seeing AI-generated LOIs, due diligence, and low-quality APAs today.

The brokers who survive will be those who add real value, like:

1. Managing the complex emotions of the parties
2. Providing process confidence to first-time sellers
3. Identifying and navigating post-closing integration risks
4. Bringing deal team relationships with bankers, CPAs, and attorneys

Long Term (5 to 10 Years): Unbundling and Repositioning

AI won’t eliminate business brokerage. It will restructure it. Expect:

1. Valuations to become largely commoditized and rendered within seconds
2. Marketing to be run by platforms powered by algorithms through the aggregation of buyer, seller, and deal behaviors
3. Human advisory to shift toward roles like exit coach, negotiation strategist, and industry M&A specialist

High-trust work, such as managing confidentiality, planning for succession, and structuring complex deals, still requires a human touch. And if you ask sellers, that’s exactly where technology-enabled brokerages have failed: during due diligence and negotiations. When the stakes are high and emotions run hotter, owners don’t need a dashboard. They need a coach.

The Real Threat in the Short Term and Long Term: Value Clarity

Before, brokers were gatekeepers of the market, often winning deals through referrals or simply because they happened to be there. That era is ending. Today, advancements in marketing, technology, and the emergence of verticalized brokerage firms are reshaping the landscape. Brokers must now earn the mandate by building a brand, establishing authority, and demonstrating unique value. The modern broker is no longer just a facilitator. They’re a deal maximizer and a deal bomb technician. If you can’t clearly articulate the emotional labor you provide, the deal certainty you deliver, and the market insight you bring to the table, don’t be surprised when sellers choose a platform or brokerage that charges a fraction of your fee and looks just close enough to you.

The Brokers Who Win the Disruption

1. Embrace AI as an efficiency multiplier, not a threat. Think speed to market: those who can create the market and accelerate the “optimal deal” from start to finish.
2. Shift from being “intermediaries” to “strategic advisors.”
3. Specialize in the high-trust, high-stakes, human-heavy parts of the deal.

First published on LinkedIn.